The New York Yankees announced today they avoided arbitration with pitcher Luis Severino, agreeing to a 4-year, $40 million contract extension. A club option for a fifth year could keep the young hurler in pinstripes through the 2023 season.
Severino has been one of the best pitchers in the American League the last two seasons, ranking third in Fangraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement, fifth in innings pitched, fifth in xFIP and sixth in strikeout percentage. He’s also the hardest throwing starter in the entire sport, averaging 97.6 on his fastball. Bottom line: he’s young (he turns 25 in a few days), durable and dominant.
There’s a lot to like here. Severino gets the security of guaranteed money coming in and the Yankees get an ace in his peak seasons for decidedly less than ace money. Patrick Corbin, who’s close to as good as Severino, just signed a 6-year, $140 million deal before his age-29 season that carries him into his mid-thirties. Barring disaster, Severino just signed away that age-29 season.
Given how stingy teams have become, that could prove a costly decision for him once his free agency dawns. But, pitchers get hurt. They get hurt a lot. No matter what happens, Luis Severino has $40 million coming to him. He’s worth much more, but that kind of money changes lives.
The question for the Yankees might be just how good Severino can be. Last season was the tale of two halves:
Looks similar, right? The home run rate spiked in the second half, but the strikeouts and walks aren’t much different and the xFIP even dropped. Well, the ERAs were, um, not so similar: 2.31 vs 5.57.
What gives? Some of it could just be bad luck on balls in play; his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) jumped about one hundred points from .278 to .378. Typically that kind of jump is fluky — it’s baseball, stuff happens.
But can we find anything further under the hood? Severino was hit harder in the second half — less soft contact, more hard-hit contact. Further, if we examine his spin rate numbers for the year, it’s mostly consistent aside from some weirdness with his slider, again in the second half:
I’m not qualified to say whether that means a whole lot, but could it mean a mechanical problem or an injury?
There was an awful lot of smoke about tipping pitches, and frankly, the evidence is pretty compelling. Pitchers with stuff like Severino shouldn’t get beaten like a drum, but make no mistake, Game 3 of the ALDS was a butt kicking.
Severino’s friend and mentor Pedro Martinez said on the air he had been pitching through an injury. Severino denied it. I suppose only the Yankees and their ace know for sure, but he didn’t go on the injured list.
He was probably tipping his pitches, perhaps in response to an injury or something else. I don’t know for sure. Regardless, he’s one of the best pitchers in the sport and the Yankees just locked up what should be the best years of his career for far, far below market value. If Severino stays even close to how good he’s been so far, it’s a big win for the Bombers.